Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
